FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
695 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
NNE AT 10 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 PM GMT Wed Nov 03 2021
Wanda continues moving northward over the northern Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 39.8 West. Wanda is moving toward the north northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion should continue through early Thursday. A brief slowdown and sharp turn to the southeast is forecast by Thursday night with an acceleration southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 39.8 West. Wanda is moving toward the north northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion should continue through early Thursday. A brief slowdown and sharp turn to the southeast is forecast by Thursday night with an acceleration southward on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Wanda appears well organized this morning, with visible satellite imagery indicating cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping practically all the way around the circulation center. However, the cloud top temperatures associated with this activity are not very cold, peaking between minus 50 to 55 C in the deepest convection. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass at 1021 UTC also did not show much change in the peak derived winds (39-kt), although the 34-kt radii have expanded a bit. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this morning also remain unchanged at CI 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and CI 3.0/45 kt from SAB. The current intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, assuming some undersampling in the scatterometer data.

The storm is moving a little faster to the north-northeast at 015/9 kt. The short-term track philosophy is fairly straightforward, as Wanda continues to be steered generally northward by a narrow mid-level ridge centered to the east of the cyclone. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this evolution over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the spread in track solutions increases quite dramatically, owing to uncertainty related to the degree of influence an approaching shortwave trough to the north has on Wanda. For now, both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS solutions show this shortwave trough bypassing the cyclone to the north, and in its wake a narrow but sharp mid-level ridge develops west of Wanda, resulting in the cyclone being steered back southward between 48-72 hours. However, the spread in track solutions from both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members is very large at this time frame. In fact, the 06z GFS ensemble track spread at 60 h is more than 500 n mi, far greater than the average forecast track errors for that period. Finally, a stronger shortwave trough is expected to pick up Wanda in the latter portion of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt acceleration to the northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, but has been nudged a little south between 48-72 h following the consensus aids. Given the high spread of ensemble solutions beyond 36 h, the track forecast beyond that time is of low confidence.

While Wanda's winds have not increased over the past 24 hours, its structure on satellite imagery has improved, with convective banding wrapping around the low-level center, aided by low vertical wind shear over the system. Even though Wanda is over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that decrease further along the track over the next 36 hours, this negative factor will be offset by cooling upper-level temperatures overhead. The trough forecast to bypass Wanda to the north could also provide a bit of baroclinic enhancement aiding ascent over the cyclone. Most of the intensity guidance responds to this environment by showing some slight strengthening and the latest NHC forecast now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt in the 36-48 h time-frame. Afterwards, some increase in shear and decreasing mid-level moisture may lead to weakening, though this could be offset by Wanda moving back over warmer SSTs as it tracks back south. The official intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one, but ultimately still shows Wanda losing tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period as it merges with an approaching mid-latitude trough.

Wanda appears well organized this morning, with visible satellite imagery indicating cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping practically all the way around the circulation center. However, the cloud top temperatures associated with this activity are not very cold, peaking between minus 50 to 55 C in the deepest convection. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass at 1021 UTC also did not show much change in the peak derived winds (39-kt), although the 34-kt radii have expanded a bit. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates this morning also remain unchanged at CI 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and CI 3.0/45 kt from SAB. The current intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, assuming some undersampling in the scatterometer data.

The storm is moving a little faster to the north-northeast at 015/9 kt. The short-term track philosophy is fairly straightforward, as Wanda continues to be steered generally northward by a narrow mid-level ridge centered to the east of the cyclone. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this evolution over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the spread in track solutions increases quite dramatically, owing to uncertainty related to the degree of influence an approaching shortwave trough to the north has on Wanda. For now, both the deterministic ECMWF and GFS solutions show this shortwave trough bypassing the cyclone to the north, and in its wake a narrow but sharp mid-level ridge develops west of Wanda, resulting in the cyclone being steered back southward between 48-72 hours. However, the spread in track solutions from both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members is very large at this time frame. In fact, the 06z GFS ensemble track spread at 60 h is more than 500 n mi, far greater than the average forecast track errors for that period. Finally, a stronger shortwave trough is expected to pick up Wanda in the latter portion of the forecast period, resulting in an abrupt acceleration to the northeast. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one for the first 24 hours, but has been nudged a little south between 48-72 h following the consensus aids. Given the high spread of ensemble solutions beyond 36 h, the track forecast beyond that time is of low confidence.

While Wanda's winds have not increased over the past 24 hours, its structure on satellite imagery has improved, with convective banding wrapping around the low-level center, aided by low vertical wind shear over the system. Even though Wanda is over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that decrease further along the track over the next 36 hours, this negative factor will be offset by cooling upper-level temperatures overhead. The trough forecast to bypass Wanda to the north could also provide a bit of baroclinic enhancement aiding ascent over the cyclone. Most of the intensity guidance responds to this environment by showing some slight strengthening and the latest NHC forecast now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt in the 36-48 h time-frame. Afterwards, some increase in shear and decreasing mid-level moisture may lead to weakening, though this could be offset by Wanda moving back over warmer SSTs as it tracks back south. The official intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one, but ultimately still shows Wanda losing tropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period as it merges with an approaching mid-latitude trough.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram