FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
695 MI WNW OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
N AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021
Wanda moving northward over the northern Atlantic.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 39.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastern motion is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a faster south southeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 40.6 North, longitude 39.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastern motion is forecast by Thursday night, followed by a faster south southeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Wanda's convective pattern has waned slightly since this afternoon. Earlier there were convective bands noted wrapping around the center, but now the primary band only wraps around the southern and western portions of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates have not changed appreciably since earlier today, and recent scatterometer wind data and UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Wanda is moving northward or 005/08 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged once again. A mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Wanda to move northward for another 6-12 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to lift northward. As subsequent ridging builds behind the trough, Wanda is expected to turn sharply eastward, and then south-southeastward to southward on Friday. Another mid-latitude trough moving across Newfoundland by the weekend should finally cause Wanda to begin to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours. The dynamical model guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Despite Wanda being over 20-21C sea surface temperatures, some cooling aloft is forecast over the next couple of days. That, along with generally favorable upper-level winds could allow for some slight strengthening within the next day or so. The global models indicate that Wanda will merge with a frontal system on Sunday, resulting in the system's transition into an extratropical low. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Wanda's convective pattern has waned slightly since this afternoon. Earlier there were convective bands noted wrapping around the center, but now the primary band only wraps around the southern and western portions of the circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates have not changed appreciably since earlier today, and recent scatterometer wind data and UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt.

Wanda is moving northward or 005/08 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged once again. A mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Wanda to move northward for another 6-12 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to lift northward. As subsequent ridging builds behind the trough, Wanda is expected to turn sharply eastward, and then south-southeastward to southward on Friday. Another mid-latitude trough moving across Newfoundland by the weekend should finally cause Wanda to begin to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours. The dynamical model guidance remains in relatively good agreement on the evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Despite Wanda being over 20-21C sea surface temperatures, some cooling aloft is forecast over the next couple of days. That, along with generally favorable upper-level winds could allow for some slight strengthening within the next day or so. The global models indicate that Wanda will merge with a frontal system on Sunday, resulting in the system's transition into an extratropical low. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

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