FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
705 MI WNW OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
992 MB
MOVING
N AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM GMT Thu Nov 04 2021
Wanda moving north but expected to turn eastward and south-southeastward during the next day or so.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastward motion is forecast by tonight, followed by a faster south southeastward to southward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 41.5 North, longitude 39.5 West. Wanda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northward motion is expected through this morning. A slow eastward motion is forecast by tonight, followed by a faster south southeastward to southward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

Wanda continues to exhibit bands of moderately deep convection, and these bands are strongest most numerous over the western portion of the circulation. The upper-level outflow has become better defined, also over the western semicircle. Overall, however, the intensity of the convection has diminished slightly over the past several hours. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from both SAB and TAFB. This is also in good agreement with earlier scatterometer measurements.

The initial motion continues to be just east of north, or 010/8 kt along the eastern side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This trough is expected to weaken very soon and Wanda should slow its forward speed later this morning. During the next 48 hours, a narrow ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone and force it to turn eastward tonight and then southward on Friday. By 72 hours, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should finally cause the system to begin to accelerate northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the model consensus, and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Wanda is located over cool 20-21 deg C sea surface temperatures, it has been able to maintain some deep convection and winds of 45 kt. On its projected path during the next day or two, water temperatures beneath Wanda are not likely to get much cooler and the upper-tropospheric temperatures are forecast to decrease somewhat. This could allow for some slight strengthening, as indicated by the official intensity forecast. In 4 to 5 days, the global models show the system becoming embedded in a frontal zone over the north Atlantic, so the NHC forecast calls for Wanda to revert back to extratropical status by that time.

Wanda continues to exhibit bands of moderately deep convection, and these bands are strongest most numerous over the western portion of the circulation. The upper-level outflow has become better defined, also over the western semicircle. Overall, however, the intensity of the convection has diminished slightly over the past several hours. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from both SAB and TAFB. This is also in good agreement with earlier scatterometer measurements.

The initial motion continues to be just east of north, or 010/8 kt along the eastern side of a mid-latitude shortwave trough. This trough is expected to weaken very soon and Wanda should slow its forward speed later this morning. During the next 48 hours, a narrow ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone and force it to turn eastward tonight and then southward on Friday. By 72 hours, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should finally cause the system to begin to accelerate northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in reasonably good agreement on the evolution of the steering pattern over the next several days. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the model consensus, and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Although Wanda is located over cool 20-21 deg C sea surface temperatures, it has been able to maintain some deep convection and winds of 45 kt. On its projected path during the next day or two, water temperatures beneath Wanda are not likely to get much cooler and the upper-tropospheric temperatures are forecast to decrease somewhat. This could allow for some slight strengthening, as indicated by the official intensity forecast. In 4 to 5 days, the global models show the system becoming embedded in a frontal zone over the north Atlantic, so the NHC forecast calls for Wanda to revert back to extratropical status by that time.

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