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At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 42.4 North, longitude 39.2 West. Wanda is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the southeast is expected tonight, followed by a general southward motion Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Friday, with some slow strengthening expected Friday night and Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Wanda continues to maintain bands of moderately deep convection near the center, mainly over the northwestern semicircle. The cyclone also continues to show anticyclonic outflow. However, cold air clouds continue to wrap around the southern side of the circulation, and in the big picture Wanda still gives the appearance of being embedded in a larger-scale baroclinic low. There has been little change in the satellite intensity estimates since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

Wanda is starting its anticipated turn and the initial motion is now 045/5. During the next day or two, a narrow mid-latitude ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the cyclone, and this should cause Wanda to turn southeastward and southward by the 48 h point. By 60-72 h, another mid-latitude trough approaching Wanda should cause a northeastward turn with acceleration, with this motion persisting through the end of the forecast period. The new guidance again shows a little more southward motion by 48 h than the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is adjusted a little southward near that time.

Little change in strength is likely during the next 24 h as Wanda remains over sea surface temperatures of near 20C. By 48 h, the southward motion brings the center over slightly warmer water, and at that time the cyclone should interact with an upper-level low that develops nearby. This combination could allow some strengthening, and the intensity forecast show modest strengthening from 24-48 h. Many of the guidance models continue to show more strengthening and a higher intensity than the official forecast between 48-72 h, and some adjustment may be needed to that part of the forecast in later advisories if this trend persists. Between 72-96 h, Wanda is expected to merge with a frontal system and become extratropical over the northeastern Atlantic.

The cloud pattern of Wanda has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm is still producing bands of deep convection near and to the west of the center, with dry and stable air limiting the amount of convection on the east side. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, and based on that data and the Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is nudged up to 45 kt.

Satellite images indicate that Wanda has turned to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 090/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward on Friday and then southward on Saturday as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at increasing forward speeds Sunday and Monday. The latest models have trended southward during the next couple of days, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction.

Wanda will likely move over slightly warmer waters and into a more unstable environment during the next couple of days, which should allow the storm to maintain its intensity or strengthen slightly during that time period. The global models all agree that Wanda will merge with a strong front in about 72 hours. Therefore, the new NHC forecast shows extratropical transition completing by that time period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance in the short term, but is near the middle of the guidance envelope after that.