Tropical Storm Wanda Advisory 22

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 38.0 West. Wanda is moving toward the east southeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the southeast is expected today, followed by a southward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength or slight strengthening is expected through this weekend. Wanda is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a few days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).

Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the western half of the circulation. Dry and stable air is apparently limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory, which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. This seems reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little overnight.

The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the dynamical track model consensus.

Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or strengthen a bit. After about 48 hours, vertical shear is predicted to increase significantly. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset the weakening process. By 72 hours, the global models indicate that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model guidance.

Wanda's cloud pattern remains about the same as it was yesterday evening, with bands of moderately deep convection mainly over the western half of the circulation. Dry and stable air is apparently limiting convection over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is held at 45 kt for this advisory, which is somewhat higher than Dvorak estimates but in good agreement with earlier scatterometer observations. This seems reasonable given that the cloud pattern has changed little overnight.

The latest center fixes indicate that the cyclone is now moving east-southeastward, or 120/5 kt. Wanda is expected to turn southeastward today, and then southward on Saturday as a mid-tropospheric ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. After that time, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach Wanda, resulting in a turn to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The official forecast is similar to the dynamical track model consensus.

Since Wanda should move over slightly warmer waters and the shear is not expected to increase during the next couple of days, this should allow the storm to at least maintain its intensity or strengthen a bit. After about 48 hours, vertical shear is predicted to increase significantly. However, baroclinic effects associated with an approaching strong front could offset the weakening process. By 72 hours, the global models indicate that Wanda will become embedded within the frontal zone, and thus have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest corrected consensus model guidance.