FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
605 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
998 MB
MOVING
S AT 9 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021
Wanda holds steady.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 38.1 West. Wanda is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast later today and a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly in the western semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 38.0 North, longitude 38.1 West. Wanda is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast later today and a faster northeastward motion on Sunday and Monday. Satellite derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly in the western semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

A dry mid-level environment appears to be hindering Wanda's convective organization tonight. While infrared cloud top temperatures have warmed within the eastern semicircle, a more recent burst of moderately deep convection has been noted in the northwestern quadrant of Wanda. A timely ASCAT-B pass just before 0000 UTC revealed a broad swath of 40- to 45-kt winds within Wanda's western semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

A narrow mid-level ridge to the north and west of Wanda is steering the cyclone southward. Its estimated motion is 185/8 kt, although Wanda has been moving more south-southwestward over the past several hours. The storm is expected to briefly slow down and meander over the central Atlantic this morning as the steering flow collapses. Then, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough located near Atlantic Canada is forecast to cause Wanda to accelerate northeastward through early next week. The global models indicate that Wanda is likely to merge with a baroclinic zone by Sunday night, then become absorbed by a deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week. The latest track guidance is in good agreement, but it has trended faster with Wanda's forward motion ahead of the trough, which will likely expedite its extratropical transition. Some along-track adjustments were made to the official NHC forecast, which now shows Wanda becoming extratropical in 48 h and becoming absorbed at 72 h.

Wanda's southward motion will bring the cyclone over slightly warmer (22 deg C) SSTs today, and cold air aloft could result in enough stability for Wanda to generate some more convection while the deep-layer shear diminishes to less than 10 kt. But the dry environment in which Wanda is embedded will continue to make it difficult for the storm's organization to improve very much, as suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF-model simulated satellite imagery. The latest NHC intensity forecast allows for just a bit of strengthening this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN/HCCA consensus aids. By late Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned upper-level trough will bring strong south-southwesterly shear over Wanda while the cyclone moves over plummeting SSTs in the North Atlantic. Baroclinic processes and a fast forward motion could allow Wanda to briefly maintain its intensity, but a weakening trend should commence on Monday before the cyclone is absorbed.

A dry mid-level environment appears to be hindering Wanda's convective organization tonight. While infrared cloud top temperatures have warmed within the eastern semicircle, a more recent burst of moderately deep convection has been noted in the northwestern quadrant of Wanda. A timely ASCAT-B pass just before 0000 UTC revealed a broad swath of 40- to 45-kt winds within Wanda's western semicircle. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.

A narrow mid-level ridge to the north and west of Wanda is steering the cyclone southward. Its estimated motion is 185/8 kt, although Wanda has been moving more south-southwestward over the past several hours. The storm is expected to briefly slow down and meander over the central Atlantic this morning as the steering flow collapses. Then, increasing deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough located near Atlantic Canada is forecast to cause Wanda to accelerate northeastward through early next week. The global models indicate that Wanda is likely to merge with a baroclinic zone by Sunday night, then become absorbed by a deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week. The latest track guidance is in good agreement, but it has trended faster with Wanda's forward motion ahead of the trough, which will likely expedite its extratropical transition. Some along-track adjustments were made to the official NHC forecast, which now shows Wanda becoming extratropical in 48 h and becoming absorbed at 72 h.

Wanda's southward motion will bring the cyclone over slightly warmer (22 deg C) SSTs today, and cold air aloft could result in enough stability for Wanda to generate some more convection while the deep-layer shear diminishes to less than 10 kt. But the dry environment in which Wanda is embedded will continue to make it difficult for the storm's organization to improve very much, as suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF-model simulated satellite imagery. The latest NHC intensity forecast allows for just a bit of strengthening this weekend, in good agreement with the IVCN/HCCA consensus aids. By late Sunday and Monday, the aforementioned upper-level trough will bring strong south-southwesterly shear over Wanda while the cyclone moves over plummeting SSTs in the North Atlantic. Baroclinic processes and a fast forward motion could allow Wanda to briefly maintain its intensity, but a weakening trend should commence on Monday before the cyclone is absorbed.

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