FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
620 MI W OF THE AZORES
WINDS
50 MPH
PRESSURE
998 MB
MOVING
S AT 5 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM GMT Sat Nov 06 2021
Wanda moving slowly southward.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 38.3 West. Wanda is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue this morning. A sharp turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon, followed by acceleration toward the northeast tonight, with that motion continuing on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly in the western semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 38.3 West. Wanda is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with a further decrease in forward speed is expected to continue this morning. A sharp turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur by this afternoon, followed by acceleration toward the northeast tonight, with that motion continuing on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly in the western semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

Wanda's convective structure has continued to evolve this morning, with two earlier bands situated east and west of the well-defined center now having consolidated into a solid band of convection with cloud tops of -50C to -57C wrapping around the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory based on continuity with earlier 40-45 kt ASCAT data and the recently improved convective structure.

The initial motion estimate is southward or 180/04 kt. Wanda is expected to slow down further this morning and then turn sharply northeastward this afternoon as a narrow mid-/upper-level shortwave ridge passes to the north of the cyclone. A strong deep-layer trough and associated frontal system are then forecast to approach Wanda from the west by tonight, causing the cyclone to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and Monday. The front is forecast to catch up with Wanda in the 36-48-h period, resulting in extratropical transition before the system is absorbed by a large, deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing forecast track scenario, and the official forecast track lies very near the the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

Wanda's is now over what will be the warmest water for the remainder of the cyclone's lifetime. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain around 10-15 kt for the next 24 h or so, while colder aloft overspreads the cyclone, creating a little more instability. This combination of positive environmental factors should continue to produce deep convection near Wanda's center, possibly resulting in some slight strengthening before the system becomes an extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the various intensity consensus models.

The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory, with a band of convection near the center in the northern semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h. Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.

Wanda's convective structure has continued to evolve this morning, with two earlier bands situated east and west of the well-defined center now having consolidated into a solid band of convection with cloud tops of -50C to -57C wrapping around the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory based on continuity with earlier 40-45 kt ASCAT data and the recently improved convective structure.

The initial motion estimate is southward or 180/04 kt. Wanda is expected to slow down further this morning and then turn sharply northeastward this afternoon as a narrow mid-/upper-level shortwave ridge passes to the north of the cyclone. A strong deep-layer trough and associated frontal system are then forecast to approach Wanda from the west by tonight, causing the cyclone to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and Monday. The front is forecast to catch up with Wanda in the 36-48-h period, resulting in extratropical transition before the system is absorbed by a large, deepening extratropical cyclone over the northern Atlantic early next week. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on this developing forecast track scenario, and the official forecast track lies very near the the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus guidance envelope.

Wanda's is now over what will be the warmest water for the remainder of the cyclone's lifetime. The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain around 10-15 kt for the next 24 h or so, while colder aloft overspreads the cyclone, creating a little more instability. This combination of positive environmental factors should continue to produce deep convection near Wanda's center, possibly resulting in some slight strengthening before the system becomes an extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the various intensity consensus models.

The structure of Wanda has changed little since the last advisory, with a band of convection near the center in the northern semicircle and more isolated convective cells elsewhere near the center. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 30-47 kt. Given the spread and the unchanged structure, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

The initial motion is 180/5 kt. Satellite imagery shows a large mid-latitude low pressure system approaching Wanda from the west and northwest, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward during the next 12 h. After that, Wanda is expected to accelerate toward the northeast. The current guidance is in good agreement on the direction of motion, although it is a little slower than the previous guidance. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast.

Increasing upper-level divergence associated with the mid-latitude low should allow Wanda to strengthen slightly during the next 24 h. Afterwards, the cyclone is expected to merge with a cold front and become an extratropical low. The global models subsequently forecast this low to weaken to a trough by 60 h, and the new intensity forecast shows dissipation at that time. Otherwise, there are only minor adjustments to the previous intensity forecast.

Partners of the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network include:  WDNA (Miami), WFIT (Melbourne), WMFE (Orlando), WFSU (Tallahassee), WGCU (Fort Myers), WJCT (Jacksonville), WKGC (Panama City), WLRN (Miami), WMNF (Tampa-Sarasota), WQCS (Fort Pierce), WUFT (Gainesville-Ocala), WUSF (Tampa), WUWF (Pensacola) and Florida Public Media.

1885 Stadium Road

PO Box 118400

Gainesville, FL 32611

(352) 392-5551

Loading...
linkedin facebook pinterest youtube rss twitter instagram facebook-blank rss-blank linkedin-blank pinterest youtube twitter instagram