FLORIDA
STORMS
Tropical Storm Wanda
LOCATED
845 MI WSW OF THE AZORES
WINDS
45 MPH
PRESSURE
996 MB
MOVING
ENE AT 7 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 02 2021
Wanda remains a sheared tropical cyclone over open waters.
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

None.

None.

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 41.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the east northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected today, followed by a slightly faster northward motion tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through midweek. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wanda was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 41.6 West. Wanda is moving toward the east northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected today, followed by a slightly faster northward motion tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through midweek. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

The satellite presentation of Wanda indicates the system is struggling with the effects of dry air and vertical wind shear tonight. The center of the cyclone is partially exposed, with dry mid-level air wrapping around the western and southern portions of its circulation. The moderate to deep convection associated with Wanda is displaced to the east and northeast of its center. A partial ASCAT-B pass shows tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the southwestern quadrant of the storm. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Wanda is moving east-northeastward, or 75/6 kt. The complex steering pattern over the northern Atlantic during the next several days makes for a challenging track forecast. In the near term, Wanda is expected to turn toward the northeast and north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the cyclone is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic. The track models are well clustered for the first couple days of the forecast period, but then significant differences emerge in the guidance at days 3-5. The new GFS deviates from its previous run and shows the cyclone accelerating eastward to northeastward as it eventually merges with an approaching baroclinic system late this week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows a narrow ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, which slows its forward motion and eventually turns the cyclone southward. The other global models generally lie somewhere in between the divergent GFS/ECMWF solutions. Given the above average uncertainty and lack of run-to-run model continuity, the NHC official track forecast remains near or between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Overall, little change in strength is expected during the next several days. While the deep-layer shear is expected to diminish through midweek, Wanda is forecast to be moving over sub-20 deg C SSTs by Thursday. Thus, the cyclone only has a small window in which to sustain enough deep, organized convection to support much strengthening. Of course, if Wanda deviates from the official track and races deeper into the mid-latitudes as shown by the GFS, it would encounter even more hostile conditions and likely transition to a post-tropical cyclone sooner than forecast. The official NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the IVCN consensus aid, and allows for a bit of strengthening in the near term similar to the previous forecast.

The satellite presentation of Wanda indicates the system is struggling with the effects of dry air and vertical wind shear tonight. The center of the cyclone is partially exposed, with dry mid-level air wrapping around the western and southern portions of its circulation. The moderate to deep convection associated with Wanda is displaced to the east and northeast of its center. A partial ASCAT-B pass shows tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in the southwestern quadrant of the storm. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 35-40 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.

Wanda is moving east-northeastward, or 75/6 kt. The complex steering pattern over the northern Atlantic during the next several days makes for a challenging track forecast. In the near term, Wanda is expected to turn toward the northeast and north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the cyclone is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic. The track models are well clustered for the first couple days of the forecast period, but then significant differences emerge in the guidance at days 3-5. The new GFS deviates from its previous run and shows the cyclone accelerating eastward to northeastward as it eventually merges with an approaching baroclinic system late this week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF shows a narrow ridge building to the north and west of Wanda, which slows its forward motion and eventually turns the cyclone southward. The other global models generally lie somewhere in between the divergent GFS/ECMWF solutions. Given the above average uncertainty and lack of run-to-run model continuity, the NHC official track forecast remains near or between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

Overall, little change in strength is expected during the next several days. While the deep-layer shear is expected to diminish through midweek, Wanda is forecast to be moving over sub-20 deg C SSTs by Thursday. Thus, the cyclone only has a small window in which to sustain enough deep, organized convection to support much strengthening. Of course, if Wanda deviates from the official track and races deeper into the mid-latitudes as shown by the GFS, it would encounter even more hostile conditions and likely transition to a post-tropical cyclone sooner than forecast. The official NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the IVCN consensus aid, and allows for a bit of strengthening in the near term similar to the previous forecast.

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