1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers.

2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices.

1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers.

2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normalhigh tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slowto recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, pleaserefer to coastal flood products issued by local National WeatherService offices.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is drifting toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the eastnortheast is expected by this afternoon and tonight. An eastnortheastward to northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday.

Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated through Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has moved a little farther inland and has weakened to a tropical depression. The same data also show that Beta has started a slow drift toward the northeast. Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory, especially during the past few hours, with cloud tops now warmer than -30 deg C, which no longer meets the Dvorak satellite classification criterion. The initial intensity is 30 kt is based on average Doppler velocities of 35-40 kt between 1500-2500 ft ASL just to the southeast and south of Galveston.

The initial motion estimate is now 045/02 kt. Steering currents around Beta remain weak. However, water vapor imagery indicates that a broad mid- to upper-level trough over western Texas is moving slowly eastward, and that feature should gradually force Beta east-northeastward later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, which keeps Beta just inland from the Gulf coast, and lies near a blend of the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX, and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Since Beta's center is forecast to remain just inland for the next 36-48 hours, chances of the cyclone regaining tropical storm status are becoming less likely. As a result, the new official intensity forecast shows Beta remaining a 25-30 kt depression during that time, followed by weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours, and dissipation over Mississippi or Alabama by 96 hours. This is consistent with the various simple and corrected-consensus models.Although Beta is now an inland tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on the cyclone due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and until it becomes clear that re-strengthening into a tropical storm is unlikely.

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000- 30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However, those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations.The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the GFS model.

Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov