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STORMS
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two
LOCATED
235 MI E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
WINDS
35 MPH
PRESSURE
1005 MB
MOVING
NE AT 3 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020
DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
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DISCUSSION

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see directwind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, intereststhroughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress ofthis system and future updates to the forecast.

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see directwind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, intereststhroughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress ofthis system and future updates to the forecast.

Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression.

Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of the depression.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of the depression and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyTwo was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northnortheastward motion is expected through early Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyTwo was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northnortheastward motion is expected through early Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055. The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, and that remains the initial intensity.As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric high building over the south-central United States. The high should force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48 hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this forecast is highly uncertain.

Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055. The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument, and that remains the initial intensity.As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric high building over the south-central United States. The high should force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3 and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/ northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48 hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier, more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in 2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that this forecast is highly uncertain.

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