1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times ofhigh tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisianacoasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of thenorthwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area inLouisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast overnight and Monday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...35 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...24 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 13 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will spread westward to the warning areas in Texas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the middletoupper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.8 West. Beta is moving toward the westnorthwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Satellite and radar imagery shows that the deep convectionassociated with Beta has decreased considerably since thisafternoon. This appears to be the result of dry air entrainment and vertical wind shear. Despite the recent decrease in convective organization, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found SFMR winds of around 45 kt, and there have been a couple of ship observations this evening of winds of 45-50 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity of 50 kt has been maintained. Data from the most recent center dropwindsonde indicate that the pressure is around 995 mb.

Beta is forecast to remain within an area of moderate vertical windshear, and that along with intrusions of dry air are likely toprevent Beta from strengthening before it nears the Texas coast.As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change instrength before landfall in about 24 hours. Gradual weakeningshould occur after the center moves over land, but the weakeningrate may be slower-than-normal as a portion of the circulationwill remain offshore. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to weaken to a tropical depression, and it should become a remnant low by 96 has it move farther inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. TheNHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensityguidance through 24 hours, and is in best agreement with the SHIPSstatistical model.

Beta has jogged westward this evening, but the longer-term motionestimate is 290/5 kt. There is once again no change the previoustrack forecast philosophy. The tropical storm is located between amid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the SouthernPlains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coastof Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridgeover the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids.