1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long durationrainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will alsospread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the LowerMississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end ofthe week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding ispossible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times ofhigh tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisianacoasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texascoast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...35 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...24 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 13 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beta is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

Beta is struggling this morning. Satellite images show thatmuch of the deep convection associated with the storm hasdissipated, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicatethat the winds have decreased. Based on a combination offlight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft, the initial intensityis lowered to 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with anASCAT pass from a few hours ago that showed peak winds close to 40kt. It is also worth noting that the tropical-storm-force windsare largely confined to the northern half of the circulation, andthese winds should spread across the Texas coast later this morning.

Beta has been moving due westward during the past several hours,with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/5 kt. In theshort term, Beta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motionat a forward speed of about 5 kt, and that motion should take thetropical storm to the Texas coast by tonight. The models differ onhow far inland Beta gets over Texas, but the majority of theguidance shows the cyclone stalling just inland on Tuesday in weaksteering currents. The combination of an approaching shortwavetrough and an amplifying ridge over Florida should cause Beta toturn northeastward along or near the Texas coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, and then farther inland over Louisiana on Thursday. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one andremains near the various consensus aids.

The tropical storm is certainty feeling the effects of dry andstable air that has wrapped into the circulation. The combinationof the dry air mass and 15-20 kt of southwesterly wind shear shouldlimit strengthening through landfall tonight. Steady weakeningis forecast after that time due to the storm interacting with landand stronger southwesterly shear. The models are in quite goodagreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the highend of the guidance envelope.