1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long durationrainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will alsospread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the LowerMississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end ofthe week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding ispossible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times ofhigh tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisianacoasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in theseareas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texascoast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...35 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...24 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...24 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 13 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...12 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Beta is moving toward the westnorthwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h) during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast (CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far, along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb.

Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06 kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours, followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keepingBeta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours.