There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
None
None
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 32.4 West. Wilfred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 32.4 West. Wilfred is moving toward the westnorthwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward.
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward.
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