1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic winddamage are expected within portions of the northern YucatanPeninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protectlife and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding andmudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minorriver flooding will increase across portions of the central GulfCoast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Deltamoves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surgeand dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts ofLouisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in theseareas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place andfollow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricanewatches will likely be issued for portions of the northern GulfCoast on Wednesday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
- Isle of Youth
- Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
- Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A lifethreatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next several hours, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area overnight. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected overnight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.7 West. Delta is moving toward the westnorthwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westnorthwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to northnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (151 km/h), and a minimum central pressure of 976 mb (28.82 inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches).

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf.Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA.