1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Now is the time to be in your storm shelter.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding is likely Friday through Saturday across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heavy rainfall will spread northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surgeand dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts ofLouisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in theseareas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place andfollow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricanewatches will likely be issued for portions of the northern GulfCoast later today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
- Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
- Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A lifethreatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westnorthwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to northnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, restrengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt.Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable area of hazardous conditions to the coast.

Fixes from the aircraft and Cuban radar data indicate the storm is moving faster to the northwest or 305/15 kt. Delta should make landfall during the next few hours between Cozumel and Cancun, and move quickly across northeastern Yucatan before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. The hurricane is then expected to move to the northwest or west-northwest around the southwestern and western portion of the subtropical ridge for about the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Delta will likely turn northward by early Friday between the ridge and a mid-level trough over Texas. While there is broad agreement on the synoptic pattern, subtle differences in the subtropical ridge and the depth of the cyclone are causing some challenges. The ECMWF and its ensembles, for instance, are showing a stronger ridge and a weaker storm, which results in a slower track toward southwestern Louisiana. The GFS and UKMET, on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the coast. Given the expectation of a powerful cyclone at landfall, the NHC forecast is shaded toward the latter two models, which results in a slightly faster and westward-shifted forecast from before, not too different from the model consensus.