1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of whereDelta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is ineffect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Thehighest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere betweenRockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residentsin the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and eveningsomewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will alsospread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path ofDeltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river floodingare likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High Island to Sabine Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
- East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...47 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...46 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...35 ft Calcasieu Lake...35 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...24 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...13 ft Sabine Lake...13 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into southcentral Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 90 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has only minor tweaks from the previous one.Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength. Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the global and hurricane regional models.