1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West of High Island to Sargent Texas
- East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...58 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...47 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...47 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...35 ft Calcasieu Lake...35 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...24 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...13 ft Sabine Lake...13 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 13 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into southcentral Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 93.5 West. Delta is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast overnight, followed by a northnortheastward motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight. Some weakening is anticipated as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002, just to the north of Delta's center, recently measured a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches).

Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR wind estimates give an initial intensity of 100 kt, and Delta is again a major hurricane.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the track forecast from the previous advisory. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track is near the various consensus models.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends, although the various rapid intensification indices are not enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Recent scatterometer data indicates that Delta is growing in sizeas it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecastagain follows a combination of the data and the forecasts fromglobal and hurricane regional models.