1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of whereDelta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effectfrom High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highestinundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between RockefellerWildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warningarea should promptly follow advice given by local officials. Thestorm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease inintensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and eveningsomewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will alsospread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path ofDeltas center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minorto major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central GulfCoast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West of High Island to Sargent Texas
- East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...58 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...47 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...47 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...35 ft Calcasieu Lake...35 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...24 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...24 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...24 ft Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...13 ft Sabine Lake...13 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 13 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into southcentral Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes today over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving toward the northnorthwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is forecast during the next few hours, followed by a northnortheastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on today, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible overnight. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's eastern eyewall recently reported a sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant wave height of about 35 feet (almost 11 meters).

The minimum central pressure based on data by from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches). NOAA buoy 42002 very near the center of Delta also recently reported a minimum pressure of 953 mb (28.14 inches).

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraftinvestigating Delta indicate that the hurricane strengthened alittle more this evening. Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, andthe highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blendof adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the currentintensity estimate is set at 105 kt. The eye became obscured onsatellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has becomeapparent again. Delta could intensify a little more within the next6 hours or so. Thereafter, sharply decreasing oceanic heat content,significantly increasing west-southwesterly shear, and driermid-level air should cause weakening. The official intensityforecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance.However, even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are still subject to an uncertainty of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so one should not focus on the exact official landfall intensity forecast. Moreover, even if Delta weakens some, it will still have serious storm surge impacts due to its large size.

Aircraft and satellite center fixes show that the hurricane isgradually turning toward the right. The motion is nownorth-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Delta should turn northward onFriday as it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric highpressure area. Later on Friday, a 500-mb shortwave trough over thesouthern United States is likely to cause the tropical cyclone toturn north-northeastward and cross the northern Gulf of Mexicocoast. Delta should then move northeastward on the eastern side ofthe trough over the southeastern United States for the next day ortwo before dissipating near Kentucky. The official track forecastis very close to the previous NHC track, and in very good agreementwith the various consensus track predictions.