1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of whereDelta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is ineffect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and eveningwithin portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along thecoast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will alsospread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path ofDeltas center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minorto major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central GulfCoast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- West of High Island to Sargent Texas
- East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...711 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...58 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...35 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...47 ft Calcasieu Lake...24 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...24 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...24 ft Lake Borgne...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...13 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...13 ft Sabine Lake...13 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 13 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning within this area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a northeastward motion during the day Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern Louisiana later this afternoon or this evening, and then move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected before landfall, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42019 located west of the center of Delta recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraftindicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory.The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mbflight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. Inaddition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range.Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.

Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridgeover the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level troughover the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeastis expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecastto cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoonor this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastwardmotion should bring the center across central and northeasternLouisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to movegenerally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and TennesseeValleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remainstightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changedfrom the previous forecast.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content alongthe forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken beforelandfall. However, there will still be significant impacts fromwinds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall,rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to atropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturdayafternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipatebetween 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models.