1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expectedwithin portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the CaymanIslands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late thisweek as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the trackand intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerousstorm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast fromLouisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday nightor Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have theirhurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast ofDelta.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and the Isle of Youth.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
- Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
- Isle of Youth
- Punta Herrero to Tulum
- Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by early Tuesday. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area Tuesday night and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may result in areas of significant flash flooding. Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. Delta is moving toward the westnorthwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday night. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the southcentral Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the center.

After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAAand the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed awest-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated tobe 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairlyquick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow betweena subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-TropicalCyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motionshould take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of theYucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf ofMexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridgeis expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across thesouth-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should causeDelta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulfcoast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little morethan 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHCtrack forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions oflow vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for thehurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, andtherefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensificationwill continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a majorhurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temperthe cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days,when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, therewill likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These lessconducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end thestrengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensityforecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close tothe HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track orintensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.