1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginningthis evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of theisland. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along thecoasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and theLeeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread toportions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canadaduring the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon has been moving toward the westnorthwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) over the past few hours, but a northwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northnorthwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 951 mb (28.08 inches).

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.