1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along thecoasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and theLeeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread toportions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canadaduring the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and continuing intermittently through late Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the westnorthwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwestward motion is expected later tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northnorthwest by late Thursday, and toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight, but a weakening trend is expected to begin later on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 953 mb (28.15 inches).

The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt. The central pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent center fixes suggest that it is leveling off. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to inner-core processes. Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually increase. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus. By 96 hours, the global models indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as extratropical by that time. Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes. This has resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so. The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more westward than previous estimates. However, recent satellite images indicate little short-term motion. The track model guidance is in very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night. Later, the cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn northward and northeastward. By days 4-5, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is right on top of the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours. This puts the closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.