1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermudathrough this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closestapproach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effectfor Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currentsare expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the GreaterAntilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 61.2 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northnorthwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a northward motion tonight through Friday night, and an acceleration toward the northeast over the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon should make its closest approach to, but well to the east of, Bermuda later this evening.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, with gradual weakening forecast by early next week.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

Earlier aircraft data indicate that Epsilon has lost a lot of strength since yesterday. The maximum flight-level winds were only 79 kt, considerably less than satellite alone would indicate. However, satellite images show that the eye has recently become better defined, and the weakening trend has probably stopped. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt, a bit higher than recent aircraft data with the satellite trend reversal and because the pressure was still about 965 mb on the last pass. Epsilon's wobbling have continued overnight, but a longer-term 12-hour motion suggests that the hurricane is still moving to the northwest (325/6 kt). The cyclone should turn north-northwest soon and northward by tomorrow while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. All the guidance is showing the hurricane accelerating northeastward starting this weekend into early next week as it becomes entrained in the fast mid-latitude flow. While the new forecast is a little west of the previous NHC track for the first day or two, it is still east of the model consensus, with only cosmetic speed changes at long range.

The forecast intensity could oscillate up and down during the next couple of days while Epsilon moves over marginally warm waters, and potentially undergoes an eyewall replacement and/or a conducive trough interaction. The intensity forecast through 48 hours is a compromise of these opposing factors, showing little change. At longer range, while the SSTs cool, a mid-latitude trough is likely to keep Epsilon's strength mostly intact as the hurricane eventually contributes to a rather significant non-tropical cyclone over the far North Atlantic on day 4. The forecast for early next week is a little higher than the last one based primarily on the global model fields.