1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermudathrough this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closestapproach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effectfor Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currentsare expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the GreaterAntilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northnorthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon will pass well east of Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on Sunday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing more weight on the aircraft data.Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days. The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic.The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane's wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds), and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one, adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed.