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FLORIDA
STORMS
Hurricane Epsilon
LOCATED
285 MI NE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
85 MPH
PRESSURE
968 MB
MOVING
N AT 12 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
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DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday.

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6 hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory, close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same, where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday.

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