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STORMS
Hurricane Epsilon
LOCATED
330 MI NNE OF BERMUDA
WINDS
80 MPH
PRESSURE
972 MB
MOVING
N AT 13 MPH
From the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
LARGE EPSILON CONTINUES TO CHURN UP THE NORTH ATLANTIC
TAP LINKS BELOW TO FOCUS
Alerts
hazards
summary
DISCUSSION

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected on Saturday. Epsilon is then forecast to continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing forward speed through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible on Saturday. Slow weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday. Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful posttropical cyclone early next week.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected on Saturday. Epsilon is then forecast to continue moving northeastward with quickly increasing forward speed through early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in intensity are possible on Saturday. Slow weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday. Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful posttropical cyclone early next week.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 355 miles (575 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact, some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids (TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

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