CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 57.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a slightly slower westnorthwestward motion later today. A turn toward the northnorthwest is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to move closer to Bermuda on Thursday and make its closest approach to the island Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km), mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

ropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast becoming increasingly symmetric. Also the eye, which was intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better defined. Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB. This is the tenth hurricane of the season. Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading. The hurricane is expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and northwest. In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center coming closest to the island in around 48 hours. In 3 to 4 days, the hurricane should turn northward and move through a break in the subtropical ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies. The official forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus. Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate vertical shear during the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very low which should limit further intensification. The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus. By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be extratropical by that time.

Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf conditions also likely.