1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday,when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of theisland as a hurricane.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along thecoasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and theLeeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread toportions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canadaduring the next couple of days.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 58.3 West. Epsilon is moving toward the westnorthwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion at a slower forward speed is expected through today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today, followed by little change in strength into the weekend.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 435 miles (705 km) mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

Epsilon has maintained an eye in infrared satellite images duringthe past few hours, although a 0522 UTC AMSR microwave imageindicated that the eastern and southern eyewall were a little thinat the time. Still, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and theUW-CIMSS ADT, unanimously increased to T4.5/77 kt, and Epsilon'sintensity is therefore set at 75 kt. By definition, Epsilon hasrapidly intensified, its intensity increasing more than 30 ktduring the past 24 hours.

As expected, Epsilon has turned toward the west-northwest with aninitial motion of 300/12 kt, in response to a mid-tropospheric ridgewhich has built to the north of the hurricane. This ridge isexpected to cede control to another ridge positioning itself east ofEpsilon during the next 24 hours, which should steer the cycloneback to the northwest and then north Thursday and Thursday night.Epsilon is then expected to become embedded in the mid-latitudewesterlies this weekend, accelerating northeastward toward the northAtlantic by the end of the forecast period. The GFS and HWRFmodels are showing some deviation to the east and west,respectively, of the other tightly packed guidance during theexpected recurvature to the east of Bermuda. However, given thatthat there is little spread among the other models, the NHC trackprediction remains close to the simple and corrected multi-modelconsensus aids.

Relatively low vertical shear could foster some additionalstrengthening today, but oceanic heat content values are expected to fall to zero in 12-24 hours, which is likely to temper how muchintensification can occur. During the first few days, the NHCintensity forecast lies between the nearly steady-state HCCA andIVCN aids and the slightly higher SHIPS and LGEM models. Thisforecast allows for some modest strengthening but generally showslittle change in strength for the next 3 days. Some gradualweakening is anticipated on days 4 and 5 as Epsilon merges with acold front and becomes extratropical, but it is likely to still bea powerful cyclone as it moves toward the north Atlantic at the endof the forecast period.