1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected to continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through early Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba through Tuesday, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge arepossible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, andStorm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect. Residents in thewatch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expectedfrom portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southernAppalachians and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minorriver flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
- Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...46 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...24 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and eastnortheast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the MidAtlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are already occurring within the Hurricane Warning area in Mexico and should continue for the next several hours.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 87.9 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to northnortheastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the watch area on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Zeta is forecast to restrengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, and be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun recently reported sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

Satellite images are showing that convection has been increasing near Zeta tonight, with cold cold tops to at least -93C, and occasional hints of a warm spot related to the early-stages of an eye beneath the clouds. Yet, the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found that Zeta has basically been steady state in terms of maximum winds and pressures, with peak SFMR values hovering between 65-70 kt and dropsonde data showing central pressures of about 982 mb. The data did show that the area of hurricane-force winds has grown, about 40 n mi in the eastern semicircle, and it is possible that the worst of this hurricane will be after the center makes landfall. The initial wind speed is kept at 70 kt on this advisory.The hurricane is running out of time to get much stronger before landfall during the next couple of hours, but some increase in intensity is possible. Zeta should spend less than 12 hours over land as it crosses Yucatan, but that's enough time to probably drop it below hurricane strength early tomorrow. However, environmental conditions are unseasonably conducive for intensification so late in the year in the southern and central Gulf of Mexico, with fairly light shear and warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours. The peak intensity forecast is raised slightly after considering those factors, and some models like the HWRF or ECMWF even suggest it could get a little stronger. As the hurricane nears the northern Gulf Coast, it is likely to encounter stronger shear and cooler waters, so some weakening is anticipated, but Zeta is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is generally similar to the previous one, lying above the model consensus.

Zeta continues to move on a generally northwestward track, or about 305/11 kt. The hurricane should move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered just east of Florida. Thereafter, a potent shortwave trough approaching from the Desert Southwest and Texas is likely to cause the cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday and move over the southeastern and eastern United States. Model guidance is in very good agreement, with only some minor differences, and the new forecast is close to the previous one and the models consensus. The system should move off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast and become an extratropical cyclone within 3 days, and dissipate soon thereafter.