1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thenorthern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundationoccurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and DauphinIsland, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon withinportions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions ofsoutheast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due toZeta's fast forward speed.

3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight inportions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba whereadditional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Betweentonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions ofthe central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-AtlanticStates near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead toflash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...58 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...46 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...24 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...13 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast this morning through today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the MidAtlantic late today through late Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through the early morning hours.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight over southeastern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 91.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to northnortheastward motion is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely overnight and this morning, and Zeta is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 30 miles (50 km) from the center. Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

Satellite images show that Zeta is becoming better organized tonightwith a ragged eye feature now present, plenty of deep convection anda more symmetric appearance. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunteraircraft has found increasing winds on this flight, recentlyrecording peak flight-level winds of 65 kt and a minimum pressure ofaround 990 mb. The initial wind speed is raised to 60 kt on thebasis of the wind data.

The improving cloud pattern of Zeta is usually one that favors intensification in the short term. In addition, microwave data from a couple hours ago indicated that a 37 GHz low-level ring was present, which also can be a harbinger of strengthening, and sometimes that strengthening is on the rapid side. Since the storm remains over warm water with fairly light shear, the NHC forecast still anticipates Zeta regaining hurricane intensity within the next 6 hours and making a second landfall as a hurricane. The new NHC forecast is a little higher than the previous one, remaining on the high side of the guidance. After landfall, Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone while it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days, and become absorbed by the same frontal system.

Zeta is moving northwestward a little faster tonight (325/13 kt).The storm is expected to turn northward and move along the westernside of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida throughWednesday morning. A deep cold low (responsible for the southernPlains ice storm) approaching from the west will cause Zeta tosharply accelerate north-northeastward and move inland along thesoutheastern Louisiana coast Wednesday afternoon. The cycloneshould continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over thesoutheastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. Similar to thelast forecast, the official track forecast was moved slightlywestward during the first 24 hours, not too dissimilar from aconsensus of the latest GFS, UKMET and ECMWF forecasts.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely tospread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.