1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thenorthern Gulf Coast by late today, with the highest inundationoccurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and DauphinIsland, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama tonight due to Zeta's fast forward speed.

3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Southern to Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thenorthern Gulf Coast beginning later today, with the highestinundation occurring between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and DauphinIsland, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area shouldfollow any advice given by local officials. Overtopping of local,non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisianaoutside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected this afternoon and eveningwithin portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeasternLouisiana and Mississippi coasts. Tropical storm conditions areexpected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area alongthe Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage andpower outages, will spread well inland across portions ofsoutheastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas,and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fastforward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across thesouthern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions ofthe central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, OhioValley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic Statesnear and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash,urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...69 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...57 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...35 ft Mobile Bay...46 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...35 ft Lake Pontchartrain...35 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...13 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late today, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area this afternoon.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern and central Alabama this evening and tonight.

RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast today, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central Appalachians tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the MidAtlantic this afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 91.7 West. Zeta is moving toward the north near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster northward to northnortheastward motion is expected to begin later this morning. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning and make landfall in southeastern Louisiana this afternoon. Zeta will move close to the Mississippi coast this evening, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast this morning, and Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane before weakening over the southeastern United States on Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 978 mb (28.88 inches).

The satellite presentation of Zeta has improved significantly overnight with deep convection wrapping around an eye that at times as been fairly well defined. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has just began its reconnaissance mission into Zeta has reported a pressure that has fallen to 982 mb and a 25-30 n-mi-wide eye during it first pass through the center. It is somewhat surprising that the plane did not report stronger winds during its northeast eyewall pass given the improved satellite presentation, and using a blend of the aircraft data and recent objective and subjective satellite estimates yields and initial intensity of 75 kt. It is possible the winds have yet to catch up to the improved satellite appearance, but since Zeta will moving over warm waters and in a light wind shear environment this morning some additional strengthening is likely. Although cooler waters and increasing southwesterly upper-level winds over the northern Gulf of Mexico are likely to cause the cyclone's intensity to level-off or even come down slightly, Zeta is expected to reach the northern Gulf coast as significant hurricane by late this afternoon. The NHC intensity forecast is at the upper-end of the guidance, a little above the latest HWRF prediction. After landfall, Zeta will weaken while it moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical gale-force low pressure area off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday night. The post-tropical cyclone should be absorbed by frontal boundary over the western Atlantic on Friday.

Zeta has turned north-northwestward and has begun to accelerate asanticipated. A vigorous upper-level low moving into west Texaswill cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward today, which willbring the center of the hurricane over southeastern Louisiana bylate this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to continue toaccelerate ahead of the trough over the southeastern United Statestonight and Thursday. The dynamical model are in very goodagreement and the latest NHC track is a blend of the various globalmodels. The new track forecast is very close the previous officialforecast.

Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likelyto spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast this eveningand tonight.

Zeta has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite images, and theeye has been fairly well-defined. Strong upper-level outflow isevident over the northern semicircle of the hurricane. Reports fromAir Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that thesystem had continued to strengthen over the past few hours. Peak700-mb flight level winds were 89 kt, which equates to a maximumsurface wind of about 80 kt, and The central pressure has fallen to976 mb. Zeta still has a few hours to intensify before it begins tomove over the cooler waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, andsouthwesterly shear is likely to increase by the time the centerreaches the coast. Even if a little weakening begins later today,however, Zeta should maintain hurricane strength through landfall.The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the modelguidance. In 36 hours or so, the global models clearly depict thesystem as a frontal wave approaching the United States east coast sothe official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that pointand beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becomingelongated and absorbed into the frontal zone.

The hurricane has turned northward and is now moving at around010/16 kt. A strong 500-mb trough moving into Texas will continueto move eastward during the next 36-48 hours. The flow ahead ofthis trough will cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward andmove inland along the central Gulf Coast in 6-12 hours. OnThursday, the cyclone will then move northeastward on the eastside of the trough, at an even faster pace, over the southeasternUnited States. By early Friday, the system should move east-northeastward in the westerlies and into the western Atlantic as anextratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is close to theprevious one and generally follows the dynamical model consensus.

Given Zeta's acceleration near and after landfall, strong winds arelikely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. this eveningand early Thursday.