1. A life-threatening storm surge is beginning along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, with the highest inundation expected to occur somewhere between Port Fourchon, Louisiana, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, especially along the Mississippi coast. Overtopping of local, non-federal levee systems is possible within southeastern Louisiana outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.

2. Extremely dangerous hurricane conditions are spreading across portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the southeastern Louisiana coast and will spread to the Mississippi coast this evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread into portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Alabama and far western Florida Panhandle coasts in the next few hours.

3. Strong, damaging wind gusts, which could cause tree damage and power outages, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia tonight and Thursday due to Zeta's fast forward speed. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

4. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern to central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL border...711 ft MS/AL border to Dauphin Island AL...69 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...69 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...57 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...46 ft Mobile Bay...46 ft Lake Pontchartrain...46 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border...35 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...13 ft Lake Maurepas...13 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane or Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast later this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions already occurring. Tropical storm conditions are also likely beginning within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and northern Georgia this evening through early Thursday morning, and into the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia on Thursday. Wind gusts could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday.

RAINFALL: Areas of heavy rainfall, both in advance of Zeta and along the track of Zeta, will impact areas from the central Gulf Coast to the MidMississippi and Ohio Valleys, and eastward into the southern to central Appalachians and MidAtlantic today through Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected this afternoon through tonight over southeastern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana. At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northnortheast near 24 mph (39 km/h) A faster north northeastward motion is expected through tonight followed by an even faster northeastward motion on Thursday and an eastnortheastward motion early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast this evening, and then move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening will occur while Zeta moves over the southeastern United States on Thursday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).

The center of Zeta is in the Terrebone Bay area of Louisiana and is making landfall near Cocodrie. Somewhat surprisingly, Zeta has rapidly intensified this afternoon. Although the hurricane has been moving over marginally warm SSTs and relatively low heat content waters, it has intensified from 80 kt to 95 kt in about 6 hours. It is possible that this intensification can be at least partly attributable to a conducive interaction with with an upper-level trough located a few hundred miles to the west-northwest of Zeta. The 95-kt intensity estimate for Zeta is based on a blend of flight-level, SFMR and dropsonde winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft.

Since the center will either be interacting with land or moving over land from this point, a weakening trend should begin tonight. The official intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, which should handle the exponential decay of wind seed for tropical cyclones moving over land. In 24 hours or so, the global models depict the system as being embedded in a front while it approaches the United States east coast. Thus the official forecast shows an extratropical cyclone at that point and beyond. After 48 hours, the models show the low becoming elongated and absorbed into the frontal zone.Zeta has turned toward the north-northeast and the forward speed isincreasing, with the motion now 025/21 kt. The cyclone shouldaccelerate north-northeastward ahead of a 500-mb trough throughtonight. The system should then move even faster toward the northeast, ahead of the trough, and across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday. Post-tropical Zeta should move east-northeastward, in the mid-level westerlies, into the Atlantic Friday morning. The official track forecast follows the correct model consensus, HCCA, rather closely. Given Zeta's acceleration after landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland over the southeastern U.S. overnight and early Thursday.