1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical stormSunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme westernCuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions ofcentral and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeastYucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. Thisrainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as atropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of thedepression and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropicalstorm conditions are possible in the watch area on Monday.

At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyEight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northnorthwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. The system should gradually turn toward the westnorthwest with a faster forward speed by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of western Cuba tomorrow and approach the Yucatan Channel or Yucatan Peninsula late Monday before emerging over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and could become a hurricane over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial intensity.

The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so, with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however, with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday. The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the model consensus.

While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low- and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned. Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico, this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone moving northward across the Gulf.