1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical stormby Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions ofcentral and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeastYucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as atropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of thedepression and updates to the forecast.

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical stormby Sunday and tropical storm conditions are expected in extreme western Cuba on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions ofcentral and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeastYucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as atropical storm Tuesday night and Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar del Rio.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Florida Keys, storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico by Monday evening.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression TwentyEight was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 83.1 West. The depression is currently stationary, but a slow north northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue on Sunday. A turn toward the westnorthwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 to 72 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday morning, and could become a hurricane by early Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.

As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual. If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf. After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the forecast period.

Corrected timing in Key Message number 3

Deep convection has increased during the past few hours south of the estimated low-level position based on aircraft data from just after the release of the previous advisory. In fact, geostationary imagery suggests that the low-level center could be trying to reform closer to the deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the system overnight and provide additional data on the cyclone's structure and intensity.

As noted above, the depression hasn't moved much, and the system currently appears to be stationary. Satellite imagery and upper-air data show a shortwave trough moving through the southeastern United States, which has weakened the steering flow around the cyclone. As the shortwave moves eastward, the subtropical ridge will expand westward to the north of the tropical cyclone by Monday, which should result in a steadier west-northeastward motion. After that time, a powerful mid/upper-level low is forecast to eject out of the southwestern U.S., which will weaken the ridge and cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and northeastward as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. The global models are not in good agreement on the details of the timing of the eastward movement of the upper-low. While this isn't unusual, it results in significant differences in when and where the tropical cyclone turns and exactly where it crosses the Gulf Coast next week, with model solutions ranging from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The new NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and the TVCA multi-model consensus. However, given the current lack of motion of the system and the large model spread late in the period, the details of the track forecast are more uncertain than usual. If the cyclone's low- and mid-level circulations can become better aligned, the environment for the next 2 to 3 days appears conducive for steady intensification, with low shear and SSTs of near 30C in the northwestern Caribbean and above 28C in the southern Gulf. After 72 hours, the shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves over cooler SSTs near the northern Gulf Coast, which should result in weakening before the center moves inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one through about 60 hours, and is a blend of the latest intensity consensus aids and HCCA. While the current NHC forecast indicates that the system should weaken below hurricane strength before landfall, users are reminded that strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts along the northern Gulf Coast. The cyclone should be absorbed into a frontal system by the end of the forecast period.