1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through this morning. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...21.0N 88.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Allen to Progreso, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
- Cozumel
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area within areas of onshore flow.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...46 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...24 ft Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and eastnortheast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday.

An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the southern Appalachians into the MidAtlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in Mexico this morning.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 88.4 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to northnortheastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to restrengthen when it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

Satellite imagery and surface data from Mexico indicated that Zeta made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just north of Tulum near Ciudad Chemuyil just before 0400 UTC. A WeatherFlow observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil reported light winds and a minimum pressure of 978 mb. Another WeatherFlow site near Playa del Carmen reported a one-minute sustained wind of 64 kt with a gust to 76 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported on Cozumel. Since the time of landfall, the center of Zeta has moved inland over the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Some weakening has likely occurred, so the initial intensity has been reduced to 60 kt. Zeta is forecast to emerge off the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula over the southern Gulf of Mexico shortly after 1200 UTC today. Although some slight additional weakening is possible while the center moves overland early this morning, environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and warm water over the southern Gulf of Mexico should allow for re-strengthening over the next 24 hour or so. By the time Zeta moves over the northern Gulf, cooler waters and increasing shear are likely to cause the hurricane's intensity to level off or perhaps weaken slightly before landfall. Regardless, Zeta is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. Given Zeta's acceleration before landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along northern Gulf coast Wednesday night. The new NHC intensity forecast is again similar to the previous one, and is little above the model consensus, in best agreement with the HWRF model. Zeta is moving northwestward or 305/12 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The hurricane will move around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge center east of Florida. By tonight, a vigorous shortwave trough ejecting out of the southwestern United States will cause Zeta to turn northward, and accelerate northward to north-northeastward on Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday. The track guidance remains in good agreement with only some slight timing differences. The updated NHC track forecast is again very similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus models. The new track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts necessitate the issuance of Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical Storm Warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf coast.