1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zetas fast forward speed.

3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
- Cozumel
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...58 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...46 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion Bay...24 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Water levels along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will gradually subside today as Zeta moves away from the area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area in Mexico for the next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through today across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across western Cuba through Tuesday. An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 89.5 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster northward to northnortheastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move inland across the southeastern United States early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to restrengthen while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and become a hurricane again later today. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36 hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear will likely halt the intensification process. The official intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance.

The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around 305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the previous one and close to the model consensus.Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.