FLORIDA
STORMS
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thenorthern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundationoccurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and DauphinIsland, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed.
3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of thenorthern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundationoccurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and DauphinIsland, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area shouldfollow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City, Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to Zeta's fast forward speed.
3. Localized heavy rainfall from Zeta will continue tonight in portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba where additional flash flooding is possible in urban areas. Tonight through Thursday heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
- Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
- Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...58 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...46 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...24 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...13 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night.
RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...58 ft Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...46 ft Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...35 ft Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...24 ft AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...24 ft Lake Pontchartrain...24 ft Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River including Vermilion Bay...13 ft Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...13 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late Wednesday.
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night.
RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading north into the Ohio Valley and MidAtlantic through Thursday, near and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal system.
Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north- northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields.
Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.
Visible satellite images show that the low-level center of the storm is slightly displaced to the north of the main area of deep convection. Since the organization of the tropical cyclone has not yet improved, the current intensity is held at 55 kt, which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Zeta should move over warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment through tomorrow morning, so strengthening is anticipated, and the cyclone is likely to regain hurricane intensity within the next 6-12 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite. Zeta is expected to interact with a frontal zone and become an extratropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern United States in a couple of days. After moving off the U.S. east coast, the system is forecast to become absorbed by the same frontal system.
Zeta continues to move northwestward, or at about 310/12 kt. The expected large-scale steering flow evolution remains about the same as before. Zeta is expected to turn northward and move along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone centered east of Florida through Wednesday morning. Then, a vigorous 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should cause Zeta to accelerate north- northeastward and move inland along the central Gulf Coast by late Wednesday. The cyclone should continue to accelerate ahead of the trough and move over the southeastern and eastern U.S. through Thursday. The official track forecast was nudged just slightly westward in 24 to 36 hours to be in better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF explicit model fields.
Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.
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