1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and early Tuesday, with hurricane conditions possible. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta could be at or just below hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba
- Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and eastnortheast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days, with isolated storm totals of 8 inches. By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 13 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Although the cloud pattern of the storm is not well-organized and somewhat elongated zonally, the system is producing very vigorous deep convection, particularly over the southern portion of the circulation. Cirrus cloud motions show that the upper-level outflow is well-defined. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak values from both TAFB and SAB, and pending another Hurricane Hunter mission into the system this afternoon. The center is difficult to locate at this time, and the best estimate for motion is quasi-stationary. A high pressure area developing near Florida should induce a general northwestward motion over the next couple of days. Later, a shortwave trough approaching from the west is likely to cause Zeta to turn northward and north-northeastward while it nears the northern Gulf Coast in 72-84 hours. The official track forecast lies between the GFS solution which is farther east and the ECMWF prediction which lies farther south and west.Given the favorable upper-level outflow pattern and very high oceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, strengthening is likely until the center moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow. Zeta should be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan. The official intensity forecast for the next 36 hours is close to the model consensus. After Zeta moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, increasing southwesterly shear and diminishing oceanic heat content are expected to prevent strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast over the Gulf is above the latest model consensus. Although not explicitly shown in the official forecast, the unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the northern Gulf of Mexico could cause Zeta to weaken by the time the center nears the northern Gulf coast. However, users are reminded that these intensity forecasts are subject to uncertainty.