1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions ofthe northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and earlyTuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme westernCuba on Monday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta acrossportions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica,the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and theKeys. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength whenit approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is anincreasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts fromLouisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas shouldmonitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Wednesday along and eastnortheast of Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday, with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.

Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S. Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern Appalachians, and portions of the MidAtlantic States near and in advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 13 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is drifting toward the northnorthwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) but a faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

The tropical storm continues to produce deep convection on its southside, with the low-level center estimated to be near the northernedge of the thunderstorms. The last pass from the NOAA HurricaneHunters a few hours ago indicated that the minimum pressure hadfallen to 997 mb, and since the storm appears better organized thanbefore the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. This intensityestimate is slightly above the latest Dvorak numbers. The NOAAHurricane Hunters are planning to be in Zeta again overnight andthat data will be helpful in assessing the storm's intensity andstructure.

Zeta has not moved much during the past several hours, and the initial motion is a very slow north-northwest drift. As ridging begins to build over and near Florida, Zeta is forecast to move faster to the northwest overnight and Monday, and that should take the center of the cyclone near or over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 24 hours. The ridge is then expected to shift eastward over the western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday as a large and quite powerful mid- to upper-level low moves eastward across the southwest and south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Zeta to accelerate northward toward the northern Gulf Coast, and likely make landfall there on Wednesday. The models remain in poor agreement on the details of the evolution of the steering pattern and consequently, there is about a 300 n mi spread in the landfall locations from the various models, which currently spans the region from the far western Florida panhandle to western Louisiana. The NHC track forecast is a little west of the previous one trending toward the middle of the guidance envelope. Based on the poor model agreement, the confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal. It is hoped that data being collected by the NOAA Gulfstream jet flying around Zeta and special NWS weather balloon launches will help the models come into better agreement on the future track of Zeta soon.

Given the low wind shear conditions, moist air mass, and highoceanic heat content over the northwestern Caribbean, steadystrengthening seems likely until Zeta reaches the Yucatan Peninsulaby late Monday. The cyclone is expected to be a hurricane atlandfall in Mexico, and the new forecast shows a slightly higherintensity there based on the new models and favorable conditions.The models differ on how long the core of Zeta will be inland overthe Yucatan, but in general, it seems likely that significantweakening won't occur given the storm's expected increasing forwardspeed. The overall environmental conditions are anticipated toremain generally favorable while Zeta moves across the southern Gulfof Mexico, but there should be an increase in shear when it reachesthe central Gulf and the cyclone will then be moving over thecooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf. The combination of thestronger shear and cooler waters should cause Zeta to level offin strength and perhaps weaken slightly before the U.S. landfall.The intensity models are in fair agreement, and the NHC forecastlies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.