1. Hurricane conditions and storm surge are expected in portions ofthe northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and early Tuesday.Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cubabeginning later today.

2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is an increasing risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta and updates to the forecast.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba
- South of Tulum to Punta Allen
- West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and eastnortheast of Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and MidAtlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 13 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.8 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to northnortheastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later this morning. Additional strengthening is expected before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 992 mb (29.29 inches).

Zeta's satellite presentation has continued to improve overnight. The cold convective cloud shield has expanded northwestward over the center and there has been a continued increase in banding over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation. With the expansion of the convection over the center, it appears that a CDO feature is trying to form. A NOAA P-3 reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Zeta overnight has reported that the pressure has fallen to 990 mb. The aircraft has found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 69 kt and believable SFMR winds of around 60 kt, with some higher flagged values. These data support increasing the initial intensity to 60 kt for this advisory.

Recent aircraft fixes indicate that Zeta has begun its expected northwestward motion at about 315 degrees at 8 kt. The storm should begin to move at an even faster pace toward the northwest as a mid-level ridge builds over the western Atlantic and Florida during the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will steer Zeta across the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula tonight, and over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. A vigorous mid- to upper-level trough currently over the western United States is forecast to begin ejecting out of the southwestern U.S. by mid-week, which will erode the western portion of the aforementioned ridge. This should cause Zeta to accelerate northward and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 0000 UTC global models, which incorporated dropwindsonde data from the earlier NOAA G-IV synoptic surveillance mission, have come into somewhat better agreement this cycle. While there is still some spread on exactly when the northward turn takes place and how quickly Zeta accelerates north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico, the cross-track spread at 60 h is about half of what it was before, resulting in an increase in track-forecast confidence. The latest NHC track is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and the GFEX consensus aid. This is a little right of the TVCA and HCCA multi-model consensus, but quite close to the previous NHC track forecast.

With the recent improvement in the outflow over Zeta, it appears that the shear that had prevented strengthening has abated. The shear ahead of the storm is expected to remain low while the cyclone traverses the deep, warm water of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane this morning, and continued strengthening is likely until Zeta moves over the Yucatan peninsula this evening. The landfall intensity is likely to be a little stronger than shown below since Zeta will be inland over the Yucatan peninsula by the 24-hour forecast point. Environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are forecast to be conducive for some re-strengthening as Zeta moves over the south-central Gulf on Tuesday. Increasing shear and the cooler shelf waters of the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in intensity before Zeta reaches the northern Gulf coast.