1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions could occur over extreme western Cuba beginning later today.

2. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall is expected from Zeta across theYucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central towestern Cuba. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urbanareas. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall isexpected from portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into thesouthern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advanceof Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, andminor river flooding.

3. Zeta is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when itapproaches the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and there is anincreasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Zeta, as Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be issued later today.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
- Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Pinar del Rio Cuba
- South of Tulum to Punta Allen
- West of Dzilam to Progreso

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstorm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Watches will likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and eastnortheast of Zeta's track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf Coast Tuesday night, spreading inland across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia during Wednesday, through the southern Appalachians Wednesday night and into the MidAtlantic on Thursday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in Mexico by late today. Tropical storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 85.6 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to northnortheastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane later today. Some weakening is likely while Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Zeta is forecast to strengthen again while it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday.

Tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

After a significant strengthening episode early this morning, Zeta appears to have changed little in intensity recently. High spatial and temporal resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located near the northwestern edge of the main area of vigorous deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is the average of recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Zeta in a few hours, and should provide a better estimate of the strength of the storm.

Zeta is moving northwestward, or about 305/9 kt. A mid-level high pressure area centered just east of Florida should steer the tropical cyclone on a continued northwestward heading for the next day or so, taking center over the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula. By around 48 hours, Zeta is expected to turn northward over the Gulf along the western side of the high. Afterward, a shortwave trough moving into the southern Plains should induce a turn toward the north-northeast and take the center inland over the southern United States. The system should then move fairly quickly northeastward across the eastern U.S. and emerge into the Atlantic by day 4. The official track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the west of the previous one but not quite as far west as the corrected model consensus.

Zeta is apparently experiencing some north-northwesterly shear given the displacement of the low-level center from the convection. However, this shear is expected to abate very soon, and the cyclone is likely to strengthen into a hurricane before reaching the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Some weakening should occur while Zeta interacts with land during the next 12 to 24 hours. The atmospheric and oceanic environment should be somewhat conducive while the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and the official forecast shows some re-strengthening in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, when Zeta approaches the northern Gulf Coast, cooler shelf waters and some increase in southwesterly shear could cause some weakening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous ones and shows Zeta still near hurricane strength at landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, which is near or above most of the model guidance. Zeta is likely to become an extratropical cyclone when it emerges into the Atlantic, and be absorbed by a frontal system around the end of the forecast period.

Given the timing of the track and the forecast wind radii, watcheswill likely be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coastlater today.