1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall movesonshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along withdestructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeasterncoast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makeslandfall. Water levels could reach as high as 1

4.to 21 feet abovenormal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta is moving toward the westsouthwest near 4 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A westward or westnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin by this afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) with gusts to 103 mph (166 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 936 mb (27.64 inches).

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time.The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makeslandfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.