1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall movesonshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the HurricaneWarning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also ineffect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along withdestructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeasterncoast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makeslandfall. Water levels could reach as high as 1

4.to 21 feet abovenormal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and theCayman Islands.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
- The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward the westsouthwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or westnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later today.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher, but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation will survive its trek over Central America during the next several days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours, a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makeslandfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland floodingwill be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.