1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hoursas Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast ofNicaragua.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along withdestructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeasterncoast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center hascrossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 1

4.to 21feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricanewarning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and theCayman Islands.4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it movesacross portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida thisweekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys shouldmonitor the progress of Eta through the week.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
- The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall tracks within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A faster westward or westnorthwestward motion is expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then northnortheast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is now a strong category 2 hurricane on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening will continue as the center moves farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of 107 mph (172 km/h) and a gust to 135 (217 km/h) were measured at the Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeasternNicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and iscurrently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next couple of days.

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin,and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by earlyWednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night.Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation willremain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of theglobal model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity centerwill emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours.At that time, the system is forecast to interact with anupper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and re-development later in the period appears likely with some strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or subtropical structure late in the period.

Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to thenorth of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple ofdays. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turnnorthward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portionof the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWFmodels are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario, there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF solutions. There is still significant spread among the various global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and intensity forecast later in the period.