1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown this evening and early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected later today along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee River, and are possible early Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and south Florida and spread northward across portions of west and north Florida today through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida today, especially across previously inundated areas, and across portions of west and central Florida today through Friday.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast from Suwannee River to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
- Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- Dry Tortugas
- Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
- Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of lifethreatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a lifethreatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along portions of the Florida Peninsula today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...35 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte Harbor...24 ft Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...24 ft Bonita Beach to Flamingo...12 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surgerelated flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of western and central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the northnortheast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest coast of Florida today, approach the westcentral coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday. Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday. Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly northeast of the center, and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A sustained wind of 33 mph (53 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a Weatherflow observing station on Sanibel Island. Across the lower Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (91 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

Eta became much better organized between 0900-1000 UTC this morning, including the formation of a well-defined, closed circular eye about 20-25 nmi wide. However, since then the satellite and radar signature have become more ragged as dry air has entrained into the western semicircle of the cyclone and has also penetrated into the inner-core region, resulting in a significant degradation of the convection in that portion of Eta's circulation. A couple of hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the remnant eye feature and measured a central pressure of 984-983 mb, and also measured 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of 83-85 kt east of the center just outside of a deep convective band. WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Tampa Bay (KTBW) indicated a long fetch of Doppler velocities of 80-88 kt at 13,500 ft directly above and east of the aircraft report, and this was within a band of strong convection characterized by radar reflectivities of 45-49 dBZ. Based on the combination of the wind data and the relatively low central pressure, Eta was upgraded to hurricane status at 1200 UTC.The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is excellent agreement on Eta moving north-northeastward for the next 24 hours around the the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward across the western Atlantic to just off the Florida east coast. Thereafter, the cyclone will move north of the ridge axis and come under the influence of southwesterly to westerly mid- to upper-level flow associated with an approaching cold front, which should result in a faster northeastward motion. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with the aforementioned frontal system off of the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just a tad east or to the right of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

It is quite possible that Eta has peaked in intensity based on the rapid erosion of the convective pattern and an eye feature no longer evident in radar or passive microwave satellite imagery. However, there still remains a band of strong convection in the northeastern quadrant that contains Doppler radar velocity values of 80-88 kt between 6000-9000 ft, which corresponds to equivalent surface winds of at least 65 kt. As long as that feature persists, hurricane-force winds are possible along immediate coastal areas within the hurricane watch area. The latest GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows significantly drier air wrapping into the center by 24 hours, along with the vertical wind shear increasing to more than 20 kt from the west at that time. That combination of unfavorable environmental parameters is expected to lead to gradual weakening until landfall occurs in about 24 hours, followed by rapid weakening after landfall. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 96 hours due to frontal interaction.