1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
- The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
- The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
- The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropicalstormforce winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Eta is moving toward the westsouthwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or westnorthwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricaneforce winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropicalstormforce winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

Eta is an extremely impressive hurricane in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very small eye that is located within a symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top temperatures below -80C. Although objective Dvorak estimates are lower due to the technique's difficulty in analyzing the correct scene type because of the pinhole eye, data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB analysts reached 6.0 on the Dvorak scale at 18Z, which equates to a wind speed of 115 kt. A recent UW/CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate also supports category 4 intensity. As mentioned in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause Eta's intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

The hurricane has turned west-southwestward with an initial motionestimate of 255/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchangedfrom this morning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central UnitedStates should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast ofNicaragua with the hurricane making landfall tonight or earlyTuesday. After landfall, Eta is forecast to turn westward, and thenwest-northwestward while it moves over Central America throughmidweek. Eta's surface circulation may not survive its trek overthe mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the globalmodels continue to depict a cyclone over the northwestern CaribbeanSea by later this week and into the weekend which appears todevelop from at least a part of Eta's remnants. Therefore, the NHCtrack forecast continues to show the system emerging over thenorthwestern Caribbean late in the period, however the long rangeportion of the forecast remains quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makeslandfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will bea major threat.