1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details ofthe future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is anincreasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions ofCuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and earlynext week.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30 inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15 to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. However, reintensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday. Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely, there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher than the previous one.