1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details ofthe future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is anincreasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions ofCuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and earlynext week.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the poorlydefined center of Tropical Depression Eta was estimated near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the westnorthwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westnorthwestward to northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low pressure this morning. However, reintensification is forecast once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus.The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days.