1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead tocatastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river floodingacross portions of Central America, along with landslides in areasof higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible acrossJamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over thenorthwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details ofthe future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is anincreasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight for portions of these areas.

Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm). Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm). This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain of Central America. Significant, lifethreatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause lifethreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that, Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution, there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in 60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the forecast period.Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough. As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the global models suggest that the system could strengthen while acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.